Seeing the future

In this episode we discuss how we can make better forecasts with Professor Paul Goodwin.

We tackle everything from the techniques available, to human problems around understanding, bias and incentives. See the chapter headings for full details.


Notes
Philip Tetlock's book is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

A paper that describes the key concepts can be found here. 

Chapters

• 0:39 Worst forecasting joke ever
• 0:43 Introduction to Paul Goodwin
• 1:21 Podcast overview
• 2:00 Introduction to scenario analysis
• 3:44 Disrputing stratgic inertia
• 4:38 Making scenario analysis useful
• 6:39 The problem of scenario bias
• 7:42 Avoiding denial of unpleasant scenarios
• 8:19 Can scenario analysis make us complacent?
• 9:22 How can we make 'Devil's Advocates' work?
• 11:39 When do groups outperfom individuals?
• 14:13 An introduction to the Delphi Technique
• 17:02 Challenges in group decision-making
• 20:22 The role of models and where they add value
• 23:25 When should we 'tweak' models?
• 29:13 Communicating forecasts to non-experts - challenges + solutions
• 34:38 Incentive problems in forecasting
• 36:26 Explainability and belief
• 37:25 Superforecasters
• 40:10 Subject matter expertise vs. forecasting skill
• 42:47 How do we help non-professional decison-makers make better choices?
• 44:48 Paul's 5 key suggestions for better forecasts