Decision Nerds

Underperformance - everyone's got a plan until they're hit in the face

โ€ข Paul Richards & Joe Wiggins

๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—บ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ด๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ?

1. Hire a manager after a period of strong performance.

2. Watch in horror as you donโ€™t experience that outcome, maybe the opposite.

3. Spend a huge amount of time and emotional labour deciding on whether your initial thesis was wrong, something has changed at the manager, or with market dynamics.

4. After sucking up a huge amount of governance time, decide to sack the manager. 

5. Rinse and repeat with potentially similar outcomes.


Now that might not be you, but it is a story that plays out regularly.


Experiencing underperformance is one of the unavoidable realities of hiring an active manager. And itโ€™s painful for everyone; clients, managers and advisers. And badly managed pain creates some predictably bad outcomes for all parties.


One important and manageable issue is time horizon mismatch. And this is what and I explore in the latest episode of Decision Nerds. We discuss


๐—ช๐—ต๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต โ€“ managers need an appropriate amount of time to let their edge play out. It may be longer than you think.


๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜…๐˜๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜… โ€“ a simple way of articulating time frames that would help everyone.


๐—˜๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜†๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐˜‚๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—น ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ โ€“ we posit that most peopleโ€™s ability to predict how they will deal with the pressure of underperformance wonโ€™t reflect reality when things get tough.

We talk about the distinct behavioural pressures facing clients, advisers and managers and what they might consider doing to make things easier. A couple of takeaways if you donโ€™t have time to listen.


๐—–๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€ - what is your real capacity for tolerating underperformance, how do you know this?

๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ - have a clear view of the timeframe your results should be judged over. Whilst this a tough problem, if you donโ€™t have a view, one will be forced on you.

๐—”๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ - is your role to be a behavioural bulwark and help clients through this period, or just keep them happy? They are not always the same thing.


More information on the Buxton Index is here: https://lnkd.in/eHXDfkfe




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